Upcoming U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks face uncertainty as Middle East conflict escalates and Moscow demands territorial concessions
The escalating conflict in the Middle East has cast doubt on the time and place of planned peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday.
According to the Ukrainian president, the next trilateral meeting was slated to take place in Abu Dhabi around March 5–6. However, the location is no longer certain. “For now, because of the hostilities, we can’t confirm that the meeting will take place in Abu Dhabi, but no one has canceled it,” Zelensky said at an online briefing, as quoted by Ukrainska Pravda.
“The meeting must take place. It is important for us, and we support it,” Zelensky added. “The meeting is important, results are important, and [prisoner] exchanges are also very important.”
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Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. held talks in Abu Dhabi in late January and early February, resulting in the first prisoner swap in months. A Ukrainian delegation also met with U.S. envoys in Geneva on February 26 to prepare for the next round of negotiations.
The Kremlin signaled a desire to proceed on Monday, despite the U.S. and Israel’s ongoing attack on its ally Iran. “We have our interests that we must ensure. And it is in our interests to continue these negotiations,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Bloomberg reported Saturday that the upcoming talks could be decisive, citing sources who said Russian officials increasingly see little reason to continue negotiations unless Ukraine is willing to cede territory as part of a deal. According to the outlet’s sources, Russia is ready to sign a draft memorandum for a peace accord if Ukraine agrees to withdraw forces from its Donetsk region. Otherwise, Moscow will likely walk away.
A new poll by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) shows that 70 percent of Ukrainians doubt the talks will produce a lasting peace. “Ukrainians continue to be critical of the current peace negotiations, and the majority do not have optimistic expectations for them,” KIIS executive director Anton Hrushetskyi said in a press release. “At the same time, Ukrainians remain open to difficult compromises and are ready to discuss them — but not at the price of capitulation.”
The survey, conducted in February, found that 57 percent of Ukrainians categorically reject ceding the Donbas — a territory that includes both the Donetsk and Luhansk regions — in exchange for security guarantees, while just over a third are willing to accept such a compromise. However, the data also shows a significant generational split, with more than 50 percent of respondents under the age of 45 viewing such a compromise as acceptable, compared to just a quarter of those in older age groups.