Project Nightfall The U.K. is racing to develop a new ballistic missile for Ukraine. Meduza explains how it would fit into Kyiv’s arsenal.
The U.K. has announced plans to develop a new ground-launched ballistic missile for Ukraine. Known as Nightfall, the system would give Ukraine a type of long-range weapon it doesn’t currently operate. To understand what role such a missile could play on the battlefield and how it would differ from the long-range weapons Ukraine already has, we spoke to an expert from Meduza’s Razbor (“Explainers”) team.
For security reasons, this article refers to the analyst simply as “Meduza’s expert.”
The British government has announced plans to develop a new tactical ballistic missile for Ukraine — a move officials say is meant to help Kyiv “defend itself from Putin’s war machine.”
The missile, known as Nightfall, is still on the drawing board. According to the British government, it will carry a 200-kilogram (440-pound) warhead and have a range of more than 500 kilometers (310 miles) — far enough, at least in theory, to reach Moscow if launched from Ukrainian territory. The system will be designed to function in challenging conditions, including under heavy electronic warfare and with limited access to GPS navigation.
London plans to select three contractors through a competitive tender. Each will be tasked with designing and delivering a prototype missile for testing within 12 months, with development contracts expected to be awarded as early as March. If the program moves forward, the U.K. aims to produce at least 10 missiles per month, at a maximum unit cost of £800,000 (about $1 million).
British officials have been discussing the development of a new ballistic missile since mid-2025. From the outset, mobility has been described as one of its key advantages: launch crews are expected to be able to relocate within minutes, reducing their vulnerability to counterstrikes.
You’re currently reading Meduza, the world’s largest independent Russian news outlet. Every day, we bring you essential coverage from Russia and beyond. Explore our reporting here and follow us wherever you get your news.
On paper, Nightfall would give Ukraine something it currently lacks: a reliable, deep-strike ballistic missile capability of its own.
Ukraine currently relies on a patchwork of foreign-supplied long-range weapons. It has received limited numbers of U.S.-made ATACMS missiles, with a range of up to 300 kilometers (about 190 miles), but their use has long been constrained by Washington. Kyiv also fields British-French Storm Shadow / SCALP cruise missiles, which carry powerful warheads and can penetrate Russian air defenses, but have a maximum range of about 250 kilometers (about 150 miles).
For much of the war, Western allies barred Ukraine from using these weapons against targets on internationally recognized Russian territory. That restriction was lifted at the end of 2024, but after the change of administration in the White House, the Pentagon introduced a new approval process for strikes inside Russia. Since then, such attacks have remained rare. Crucially, U.S. approval is still required not only for ATACMS launches, but also for Storm Shadow strikes, because the missiles rely on American targeting data.
Ukraine is also attempting to build its own long-range missile arsenal. Kyiv has announced plans to produce a cruise missile known as Flamingo, with a purported range of up to 3,000 kilometers (about 1,860 miles). President Volodymyr Zelensky said in November that mass production would begin before the end of the year, and Ukraine’s General Staff has said that isolated experimental combat launches have been conducted since May.
But according to Meduza’s expert, these systems do not yet address the capability the British project is meant to target.
Ukraine does not currently operate a functioning missile system capable of striking targets more than 500 kilometers away, the expert says. While Flamingo has been presented as such a weapon, there’s no evidence it has ever been used at long distances. Additionally, its large size likely makes it a relatively easy target for Russian air defenses, the expert notes. As for ballistic missiles, Ukraine has none of its own — only a limited supply of ATACMS, whose targets must still be approved by the United States.
Asked whether adding yet another long-range system makes sense, given the cost and complexity of integrating new weapons into Ukraine’s arsenal, Meduza’s expert points to the specific role ballistic missiles play in modern strike campaigns.
Today, Ukraine can strike deep into Russian territory mainly with long-range drones, which typically carry warheads weighing less than 100 kilograms (220 pounds) and must be used in large numbers to overwhelm air defenses. That approach has clear limits, the expert notes: Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil refineries has shown that drones alone often lack the destructive power needed to disable heavily fortified infrastructure. And while Storm Shadow / SCALP cruise missiles are effective, their shorter range constrains their use. Taken together, the expert says, these limitations mean Ukraine is unable to effectively destroy targets located more than about 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the front line.
Russian strike campaigns against Ukraine, by contrast, have shown the effectiveness of combining drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles in a single attack, according to Meduza’s expert. He notes that ballistic missiles serve a distinct function in this mix: they place heavy strain on long-range air defense systems that rely on expensive interceptor missiles, and they are particularly effective at penetrating dense clusters of short-range air defenses deployed around high-value targets such as refineries and air bases — systems that are poorly suited to intercepting ballistic threats. From this perspective, a ballistic missile like Nightfall could help fill a gap rather than simply add another strike option — if the system ultimately performs as planned.
